Economic and regulatory uncertainty in renewable energy system design: a review

Renewable energy is increasingly mobilizing more investment around the globe. However, there has been little attention to evaluating economic and regulatory (E&R) uncertainties, despite their enormous impact on the project cashflows. Consequently, this review analyzes, classifies, and discusses 130 articles dealing with the design of renewable energy projects under E&R uncertainties. After performing a survey and identifying the selected manuscripts, and the few previous reviews on the matter, the following innovative categorization is designed: sources of uncertainty, uncertainty characterization methods, problem formulations, solution methods, and regulatory frameworks. The classification reveals that electricity price is the most considered source of uncertainty, often alone, despite the existence of six other equally influential groups of E&R uncertainties. In addition, real options and optimization arise as the two main approaches researchers use to solve problems in energy system design. Subsequently, the following aspects of interest are discussed in depth: how modeling can be improved, which are the most influential variables, and potential lines of research. Conclusions show the necessity of modeling E&R uncertainties with currently underrepresented methods, suggest several policy recommendations, and encourage the integration of prevailing approaches.Peer ReviewedObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::7 - Energia Assequible i No Contaminant::7.2 - Per a 2030, augmentar substancialment el percentatge d’energia renovable en el con­junt de fonts d’energiaObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::7 - Energia Assequible i No ContaminantPostprint (published version

A comprehensive methodology for the statistical characterization of solar irradiation: application to the case of Morocco

The prediction and characterization of solar irradiation relies mostly on either the use of complex models or on complicated mathematical techniques, such as artificial neural network (ANN)-based algorithms. This mathematical complexity might hamper their use by businesses and project developers when assessing the solar resource. In this study, a simple but comprehensive methodology for characterizing the solar resource for a project is presented. It is based on the determination of the best probability distribution function (PDF) of the solar irradiation for a specific location, assuming that the knowledge of statistical techniques may be more widely extended than other more complex mathematical methods. The presented methodology was tested on 23 cities across Morocco, given the high interest in solar investments in the country. As a result, a new database for solar irradiation values depending on historical data is provided for Morocco. The results show the great existing variety of PDFs for the solar irradiation data at the different months and cities, which demonstrates the need for undertaking a proper characterization of the irradiation when the assessment of solar energy projects is involved. When it is simply needed to embed the radiation uncertainty in the analysis, as is the case of the techno-economic valuation of solar energy assets, the presented methodology can reach this objective with much less complexity and less demanding input data. Moreover, its application is not limited to solar resource assessment, but can also be easily used in other fields, such as meteorology and climate change studies.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Contribution to the PV-to-inverter sizing ratio determination using a custom flexible experimental setup

This work presents a novel approach to the experimental validation of the optimal PV-to-inverter sizing ratio value for the energy yield maximization of a GCPVS by means the implementation of a custom workbench using a solar array simulator which has allowed to replicate a wide variety of technical configurations and environmental data. The compliance between the experimental setup and the mathematical model developed to simulate the optimal PV-to-inverter sizing ratio value was demonstrated by the specific tests carried out on its two main subsystems (the PV generator and the inverter), thus the subsequent simulations were made on a firm basis. Likewise, the evaluation of the overall system also showed a good agreement between the experimental and the simulated energy yield and optimal PV-to-inverter sizing ratio results, rendering relative errors below 3% for both magnitudes. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author’s final draft

Proposal of novel single-phase power quality indicators considering subsynchronous frequency perturbations in voltage and current under non-sinusoidal conditions

This work pretends to reconsider power quality (PQ), in AC single-phase low voltage systems, considering perturbation sources with frequency components below the fundamental frequency in voltage and current signals. These perturbations induced by sources like Geomagnetic Induced Currents (GMC), Arc Furnaces, switching VSC, etc. [1]-[2],[30]-[32], can occur in a frequency range comprised between DC and the fundamental frequency of the system. Standard PQ indexes do not characterize properly these subsynchronous frequency perturbations (SFFP), [2]-[3] and this work pretends to analyze the spectra from 0 to 50Hz for voltage and current, proposing new formulation for some PQ as a function of SSFP, with the intention of explaining the observed degradation of the power quality in single-phase low voltage electric systems.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

A new LPF-based grid frequency estimation for the SOGI filter with improved harmonic rejection

This paper proposes a new method for the estimation of the grid voltage frequency using a low-pass filter (LPF) approach. The estimated frequency is used to tune a second order generalized integrator (SOGI) filter commonly used for grid monitoring purposes and applications requiring parameter estimation from the grid. A first-order LPF is used first for the estimation that behaves identically to the reported normalized SOGI-FLL. A second-order LPF is proposed instead to overcome this circumstance. The behavior of this approach is dynamically analyzed and a linearized model useful for design purposes is derived. The behavior of the proposed system is checked with simulations, showing that the model matches well with the real system and has a smoother transient response to step frequency perturbations and also a better rejection to harmonic distortion than previous approaches.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Assessing the 2014 retroactive regulatory framework applied to the concentrating solar power systems in Spain

The RD 413/2014 new economic and regulatory framework applied to the concentrating solar power plants (CSPP) in Spain has been here analysed and its new remuneration scheme has been formulated, becoming evident its high complexity and the great number of regulatory parameters involved. Next, a new model focused on determining its impact on the economic results of the existing CSPP has been proposed. Due to the complexity of the system, a methodology comprising a set of different stages of analysis has been developed. The new model has proven to be a useful tool to analyse the economic impact of the new regulatory scheme on the facilities and to identify its most influential regulatory parameters. One of the most representative facilities has been chosen as a case study to undertake the analysis. The results of the analysis, which have shown a substantial profitability reduction, have been consistent with the appreciations and data provided by the claimants of the last arbitral Award concerning the Kingdom of Spain and investors of CSPP in this country.Peer ReviewedPreprin

Renewable energy auction prices: near subsidy-free?

The latest trend of low record bid prices in renewable energy auctions has raised concerns on the effective deployment of the winning projects. A survey of recent auction data from several countries, technologies and remuneration designs is analysed and compared with the corresponding levelised costs of energy (LCOEs) to draw first insights on their viability. A critical assessment of the ability of the LCOE for determining the adequate bid level is then performed and the preliminary unviable results of selected mature technologies are further investigated using improved profitability metrics as the project and equity net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). As representative examples, the analysed Danish 2019 onshore wind and photovoltaics (PV) auctions require very specific scenarios to become viable, which cast doubts on their effective implementation. Under the assumptions of a realistic base case, the sensitivity analysis revealed that either 59% of decrease in the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), or 37% of discount on the investment cost or a 3.6% annual increment in the mean market price is needed for achieving the NPV break-even in the onshore wind case. Likewise, the PV case is unprofitable whatever the WACC may be, and either a 60% discount on the investment cost or a 6.8% annual increment in the mean market price is needed for the NPV to break-even. Although some projects could be relying on indirect revenues or additional sources of incomes beyond the auction support, it remains to see if they are finally materialised.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

HIL-assessed fast and accurate single-phase power calculation algorithm for voltage source inverters supplying to high total demand distortion nonlinear loads

The dynamic performance of the local control of single-phase voltage source inverters (VSIs) can be degraded when supplying to nonlinear loads (NLLs) in microgrids. When this control is based on the droop principles, a proper calculation of the active and reactive averaged powers (P–Q) is essential for a proficient dynamic response against abrupt NLL changes. In this work, a VSI supplying to an NLL was studied, focusing the attention on the P–Q calculation stage. This stage first generated the direct and in-quadrature signals from the measured load current through a second-order generalized integrator (SOGI). Then, the instantaneous power quantities were obtained by multiplying each filtered current by the output voltage, and filtered later by utilizing a SOGI to acquire the averaged P–Q parameters. The proposed algorithm was compared with previous proposals, while keeping the active power steady-state ripple constant, which resulted in a faster calculation of the averaged active power. In this case, the steady-state averaged reactive power presented less ripple than the best proposal to which it was compared. When reducing the velocity of the proposed algorithm for the active power, it also showed a reduction in its steady-state ripple. Simulations, hardware-in-the-loop, and experimental tests were carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposal.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

A power calculation algorithm for single-phase droop-operated-inverters considering linear and nonlinear loads HIL-assessed

The active and reactive powers, P and Q, are crucial variables in the parallel operation of single-phase inverters using the droop method, introducing proportional droops in the inverter output frequency and voltage amplitude references. P and Q, or P-Q, are calculated as the product of the inverter output voltage and its orthogonal version with the output current, respectively. However, when sharing nonlinear loads these powers, Pav and Qav, should be averaged by low-pass filters (LPFs) with a very low cut-o frequency to avoid the high distortion induced by these loads. This forces the droop method to operate at a very low dynamic velocity and degrades the system stability. Then, di erent solutions have been proposed in literature to increase the system velocity, but only considering linear loads. Therefore, this work presents a method to calculate Pav and Qav using second-order generalized integrators (SOGI) to face this problem with nonlinear loads. A double SOGI (DSOGI) approach is applied to filter the nonlinear load current and provide its fundamental component to the inverter, leading to a faster dynamic velocity of the droop-based load sharing capability and improving the stability. The proposed method is shown to be faster than others in the literature when considering nonlinear loads, while smoothly driving the system with low distortion levels. Simulations, hardware-in-loop (HIL) and experimental results are provided to validate this proposal.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Assessment of the Royal Decree 244/2019 in the Spanish Electrical Regulatory Framework considering power quality issues related to harmonic distortion associated to nonlinear loads in grid-connected microgrids

Postprint (published version